AUDUSD: Flexing its Muscles or Just Catching its Breath? A Tale of Two Trendlines

The AUDUSD pair has been flexing its muscles recently, but started to feel a bit overcooked, like it might be time for a breather. The RBA minutes then stepped onto the scene, less hawkish than the markets were expecting. Some folks are even calling it dovish. When we get down to the technical nitty-gritty, we see that price recently shattered June’s uptrend line and bounced back from a support level around .675. In my book, the AUD still has some room to flex if the next data drops in strong. But here’s the million-dollar question: Was the tumble after the RBA minutes a big enough breather for June’s bull run to pick up the pace again?

Looking at the AUD at the index level, it’s like looking in the mirror – the AUDUSD pair and the AUD index are telling the same story. Now, let’s flip over to the USD index. Even though it’s been on a massive downhill run, I’m not totally sold on ditching the dollar just after it broke June’s downhill trendline. I might feel a bit more at ease about selling dollars if the price action starts breaking a few of its recent higher highs.