Tariffs, Tech & Tumult: The Market’s Wildest Week Yet in 2025

Weekly Market Recap & Analysis: April 6–13, 2025

📈 Overview

This past week was one of the most volatile and consequential for markets in recent memory. From sweeping tariff announcements and exemptions to critical inflation data and Fed commentary, traders and investors alike had plenty to digest. Here’s your complete rundown and analysis.

🏛️ Trade & Tariff Developments

❌ Trump Tariff Shock (April 2–10)

• April 2: President Trump announced sweeping tariffs under the “Liberation Day” initiative: 10% on all imports, 25% on select goods like cars, steel, and aluminum.
• April 4: The tariffs took effect but were partially paused just hours later, with a 90-day exemption for most countries (excluding China).
• April 10: U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125%, and China responded with 84% tariffs on U.S. imports.

✅ Weekend Tech Exemptions (April 12–13)

• Trump announced exemptions for tech products including smartphones, laptops, semiconductors, and routers.
• These exemptions, retroactive to April 5, provide temporary relief to tech firms like Apple, Nvidia, Dell, and HP.
• Commerce Secretary Lutnick noted these are short-term and sector-specific tariffs (especially on semiconductors) are coming soon.

📊 Market Performance

• S&P 500: +1.8%
• Nasdaq: +2.1%
• Dow Jones: +1.6%
• April 9 saw a huge rally: S&P +9.5%, Nasdaq +12.2%, Dow +3,000 pts following the tariff pause.

📊 Economic Data Summary

🔒 April 9: FOMC Minutes & 10Y Bond Auction

• Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.50%, cited uncertainty.
• Slowed balance sheet runoff (Treasury cap from $25B → $5B).
• Concerns about stagflation: high inflation + weak labor market.
• 10Y Bond Auction had modest demand, yields stayed elevated.

📉 April 10: CPI & Unemployment Claims

• Headline CPI (March): +0.2% MoM / +2.4% YoY
• Core CPI: +0.1% MoM / +2.8% YoY
• Gasoline (-6.3%) and airfare (-5.3%) saw the biggest declines.
• Jobless Claims: 215,000 (stable labor market)

💸 April 11: PPI & Consumer Sentiment

• PPI (March): -0.4% MoM (YoY +2.7%)
• U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 50.8 (lowest since June 2022)
• 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 6.7% (highest since 1981)
• 5-Year Expectations: 4.4%
• Spike in expected unemployment (highest since 2009)

🗣️ Fed Speak

• Powell: Warned tariffs could worsen inflation and growth.
• Waller & Hammack: Wanted to continue QT at full pace; disagreed on slowing runoff.
• Fed speakers to watch next week: Harker, Bostic, Hammack, Daly.

⚖️ Analysis: What It All Means

The tariff exemptions were a relief valve, especially for tech. This could support a short-term bounce in risk assets. However, the exemptions are temporary, and sector-specific tariffs (semiconductors) are on deck.

Inflation data (CPI, PPI) came in cool, but consumer sentiment deteriorated, and inflation expectations rose sharply. The Fed remains cautious, and traders should prepare for mixed signals.

We’re likely in a choppy environment: relief rallies followed by reality checks. Macro volatility is the name of the game.

🔍 What to Watch This Week (April 14–18)

Monday, April 14

• Fed speeches: Harker, Bostic

Tuesday, April 15

• Import Price Index (March)
• Empire State Manufacturing Survey (April)

Wednesday, April 16

• Retail Sales (March)
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
• Homebuilder Confidence Index (April)
• Fed speech: Hammack

Thursday, April 17

• Jobless Claims
• Housing Starts & Building Permits (March)
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey (April)

Friday, April 18

• Fed speech: Daly

🔹 Key Takeaways

• Relief rally may extend into early week.
• Watch for Fed tone – hawkish comments could pull back gains.
• Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are flashing warnings.
• Keep an eye on Retail Sales and Housing data for demand-side signals.
• Tariff policy remains a wildcard and market mover.

Stay nimble. Stay informed. This isn’t the time to get complacent. Let’s ride the wave—but keep one hand on the eject button.