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Strategy Library / Elliott Wave Blueprint

MNQ Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R

A public playbook for the MNQ Elliott-style Wave 3 short breakout with regime and opening-location confirmation.

30 trades / 60.0% win / 3.24 profit factor / +33.81 avg pts.

MNQ New York 1m Chart Short Setup regime_spy+first30_close_location=flat+near_high 30 Trades
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Trades 30 Saved Strategy Lab shortlist
Win Rate 60.0% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 3.24 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +1014.30 MNQ points captured
Avg Trade +33.81 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MNQ / 1m Chart / New York
Annotated MNQ Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

A short continuation setup that uses a confirmed downside impulse, controlled retracement, and breakdown to define a Wave 3 attempt.

Why It Fires

After an initial bearish impulse, a controlled retracement can set up the next expansion leg. The Wave 3 break confirms sellers are taking control again.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Chart: MNQ 1-minute bars with confirmed pivots.
  • Identify the first downside impulse before labeling the setup.
  • Wait for a controlled retracement that stays inside the tested structure window.
  • Required filter: regime_spy+first30_close_location=flat+near_high.
  • Short only when the Wave 3 breakdown confirms.

Good Conditions

  • The retracement is controlled rather than a full reversal.
  • The first-30 close is near the high while SPY regime is flat.
  • The breakdown has room before the next demand shelf.
  • The wave labels are visible before entry, not fitted afterward.

Avoid Conditions

  • The retracement invalidates the first impulse.
  • The setup needs forced wave labels to make sense.
  • The breakdown fires after the move is already extended.
  • The market is rotating sideways through overlapping pivots.

Setup Anatomy

Bearish wave sequence chart anatomy for Impulse Step 01
1 Impulse Mark the first confirmed downside impulse.
Bearish retest and rejection chart anatomy for Retrace Step 02
2 Retrace Wait for a controlled pullback against the impulse.
Bearish channel breakdown chart anatomy for Wave 3 Break Step 03
3 Wave 3 Break Short only when the Wave 3 breakdown confirms.
Alert Readout

Tier 1: MNQ Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R. A short continuation setup that uses a confirmed downside impulse, controlled retracement, and breakdown to define a Wave 3 attempt. Filter: regime_spy+first30_close_location=flat+near_high. Research sample: 30 trades, 60.0% win, 3.24 PF, +33.81 avg pts.