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Strategy Library / Trend Breakout Blueprint

MNQ Donchian 55 Breakout Short 2R

A public playbook for the MNQ Donchian 55 short breakout that survived Strategy Lab regime and dollar filters.

37 trades / 62.2% win / 3.33 profit factor / +31.60 avg pts.

MNQ New York 1m Chart Short Setup regime_dxy+entry_dxy=flat+flat 37 Trades
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Trades 37 Saved Strategy Lab shortlist
Win Rate 62.2% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 3.33 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +1169.35 MNQ points captured
Avg Trade +31.60 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MNQ / 1m Chart / New York
Annotated MNQ Donchian 55 Breakout Short 2R setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

A trend-following short setup that waits for MNQ to break a 55-bar channel low after the market has built enough structure to prove range expansion.

Why It Fires

A clean channel breakdown can pull in momentum sellers and force trapped dip-buyers to unwind. The flat-dollar filter keeps the setup focused on tape-driven continuation instead of chasing a noisy macro spike.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Chart: MNQ 1-minute bars during the New York trade window.
  • Build a 55-bar Donchian channel before the trigger.
  • Short only when price breaks the channel low with acceptance.
  • Required filter: regime_dxy+entry_dxy=flat+flat.
  • Risk model: channel invalidation or tested stop model, 2R target.

Good Conditions

  • The breakdown leaves the old channel cleanly instead of snapping back immediately.
  • Dollar pressure is flat at both the regime and entry layer.
  • Volatility expands after compression, not after an exhausted vertical move.
  • The nearest support pocket is not directly under entry.

Avoid Conditions

  • Price breaks the channel low and instantly reclaims it.
  • The channel is tiny, noisy, or built around news whipsaw.
  • DXY/VIX pressure turns violently against the short.
  • The setup fires into a major scheduled macro release.

Setup Anatomy

Bearish market context filter chart anatomy for Filter Step 01
1 Filter Dollar regime and entry dollar pressure both read flat.
Bearish channel breakdown chart anatomy for Breakdown Step 02
2 Breakdown Price accepts below the 55-bar channel low.
Bearish continuation path chart anatomy for Continuation Step 03
3 Continuation The trade looks for clean downside expansion toward the 2R model.
Alert Readout

Tier 1: MNQ Donchian 55 Breakout Short 2R. A trend-following short setup that waits for MNQ to break a 55-bar channel low after the market has built enough structure to prove range expansion. Filter: regime_dxy+entry_dxy=flat+flat. Research sample: 37 trades, 62.2% win, 3.33 PF, +31.60 avg pts.