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MES Volume Profile Value Area Reentry Short To POC
A public playbook for the MES value-area reentry short that targets the point of control.
30 trades / 63.3% win / 4.13 profit factor / +5.19 avg pts.
What This Setup Is
A short-side volume profile setup where price rejects above value, reenters the value area, and uses POC as the rotation magnet.
Why It Fires
Once price fails above value and accepts back inside, the market often auctions toward the fairest price. POC becomes the natural magnet if sellers keep control.
Exact Trigger Checklist
- Chart: MES 1-minute bars with prior profile references loaded.
- Mark value area high, value area low, and POC before entry.
- Price must reenter value from above and accept back inside.
- Required filter: regime_vix+opening_vol_regime=down+high.
- Target concept: POC or the tested short-to-POC model.
Good Conditions
- Value area and POC references are clean and recent.
- The reentry candle closes back inside value with follow-through.
- Opening volatility is high enough to support rotation.
- VIX regime is down, reducing panic-chop risk.
Avoid Conditions
- Price is already sitting on POC before the trigger.
- The reentry is only a wick and does not close inside value.
- The market is trending hard above value with no seller response.
- Profile references are stale from an abnormal session.
Setup Anatomy
Step 01
Step 02
Step 03
Tier 1: MES Volume Profile Value Area Reentry Short To POC. A short-side volume profile setup where price rejects above value, reenters the value area, and uses POC as the rotation magnet. Filter: regime_vix+opening_vol_regime=down+high. Research sample: 30 trades, 63.3% win, 4.13 PF, +5.19 avg pts.
Trading this setup inside a funded account? Run the funding readiness check, compare the timing against the Trading Sessions Guide and the New York session guide, then compare prop firm rules before you size the session.