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Strategy Library / Elliott Wave Blueprint

MES Elliott Wave Wave 3 Breakout Short 3R

A public playbook for the MES Elliott-style Wave 3 short continuation with narrative and volatility filters.

32 trades / 50.0% win / 3.30 profit factor / +15.86 avg pts.

MES New York 1m Chart Short Setup narrative_tag+opening_vol_regime=vol crush+high 32 Trades
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Trades 32 Saved Strategy Lab shortlist
Win Rate 50.0% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 3.30 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +507.50 MES points captured
Avg Trade +15.86 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MES / 1m Chart / New York
Annotated MES Elliott Wave Wave 3 Breakout Short 3R setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

A rules-first Wave 3 continuation attempt that uses confirmed pivots and retracement structure before shorting the next breakdown.

Why It Fires

Wave 3 concepts work best when the market already made an impulse, retraced without invalidation, and then breaks again. The filter keeps the setup tied to high opening volatility and a vol-crush narrative state.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Chart: MES 1-minute bars with confirmed pivot sequence.
  • Identify impulse leg, corrective retracement, and invalidation point.
  • Short only when the Wave 3 breakdown confirms.
  • Required filter: narrative_tag+opening_vol_regime=vol crush+high.
  • Risk model: pivot invalidation with 3R continuation target.

Good Conditions

  • The pivot sequence is confirmed rather than guessed in real time.
  • Retracement stays inside the tested Fibonacci window.
  • Opening volatility is high, but the trade is not late into exhaustion.
  • A downside target zone is visible before major support.

Avoid Conditions

  • The wave count requires forcing the labels.
  • Price has already completed the measured move before entry.
  • The retracement invalidates the pivot structure.
  • The narrative state changes after a fresh headline.

Setup Anatomy

Bearish wave sequence chart anatomy for Impulse Step 01
1 Impulse Mark the first confirmed downside impulse.
Bearish retest and rejection chart anatomy for Retrace Step 02
2 Retrace Wait for a controlled pullback that does not invalidate.
Bearish channel breakdown chart anatomy for Wave 3 Break Step 03
3 Wave 3 Break Short the confirmed continuation break.
Alert Readout

Tier 1: MES Elliott Wave Wave 3 Breakout Short 3R. A rules-first Wave 3 continuation attempt that uses confirmed pivots and retracement structure before shorting the next breakdown. Filter: narrative_tag+opening_vol_regime=vol crush+high. Research sample: 32 trades, 50.0% win, 3.30 PF, +15.86 avg pts.