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Strategy Library / Elliott Wave Blueprint

MES Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R - Rates Up Gap Up

A public playbook for the MES Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R - Rates Up Gap Up Strategy Lab published edge.

27 trades / 59.3% win / 2.90 profit factor / +8.74 avg pts.

MES New York 1m Chart Short Setup regime_rates+gap_bucket=up+gap_up_medium 27 Trades
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Trades 27 Saved Strategy Lab published edge
Win Rate 59.3% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 2.90 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +236.00 MES points captured
Avg Trade +8.74 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MES / 1m Chart / New York
Annotated MES Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R - Rates Up Gap Up setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

An Elliott-style short continuation setup that uses a confirmed impulse, controlled retracement, and Wave 3 break.

Why It Fires

After the first impulse, a controlled retracement can set up the expansion leg. The Wave 3 break confirms short momentum is back in control.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Chart: MES 1-minute bars during the New York setup window.
  • Build the pattern before entry; do not label it after the move has already worked.
  • Required filter: regime_rates+gap_bucket=up+gap_up_medium.
  • Short only after the trigger confirms and acceptance holds.
  • Use the tested 2R model and invalidate above the setup zone.

Good Conditions

  • The impulse and retracement are visible before the trade.
  • The retracement stays inside the tested structure window.
  • The break confirms continuation rather than late chase.
  • The filter bucket agrees with the wave direction.

Avoid Conditions

  • Wave labels only make sense after forcing them onto the chart.
  • The retracement fully invalidates the first impulse.
  • The trigger fires after the expansion leg is already stretched.
  • The market is chopping through overlapping pivots.

Setup Anatomy

Bearish wave sequence chart anatomy for Impulse Step 01
1 Impulse Mark the first confirmed downside impulse.
Bearish retest and rejection chart anatomy for Retrace Step 02
2 Retrace Wait for a controlled pullback against the impulse.
Bearish channel breakdown chart anatomy for Wave 3 Break Step 03
3 Wave 3 Break Short only when the Wave 3 break confirms.
Alert Readout

Tier 2: MES Elliott Wave Wave3 Breakout Short 2R - Rates Up Gap Up. An Elliott-style short continuation setup that uses a confirmed impulse, controlled retracement, and Wave 3 break. Filter: regime_rates+gap_bucket=up+gap_up_medium. Research sample: 27 trades, 59.3% win, 2.90 PF, +8.74 avg pts.