Natron's Market IntelStrategy Blog Join NatronFX
Strategy Library / Elliott Wave Blueprint

MES Elliott Wave Wave 3 Breakout Long 2R

A public playbook for the MES Wave 3 long breakout in a balanced regime bucket.

50 trades / 56.0% win / 2.36 profit factor / +5.81 avg pts.

MES New York 1m Chart Long Setup regime_label=balanced 50 Trades
Get Live Alerts Strategy Hub Join NatronFX
Trades 50 Saved Strategy Lab shortlist
Win Rate 56.0% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 2.36 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +290.50 MES points captured
Avg Trade +5.81 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MES / 1m Chart / New York
Annotated MES Elliott Wave Wave 3 Breakout Long 2R setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

A long continuation setup that uses a confirmed impulse, controlled retracement, and upside break to define a Wave 3 attempt.

Why It Fires

Balanced regime conditions can let structure lead the trade. If the retracement holds and the breakout confirms, the next impulse can travel cleanly enough for a 2R model.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Chart: MES 1-minute bars with confirmed pivots.
  • Identify the first upside impulse and retracement.
  • Require regime_label=balanced.
  • Go long on the confirmed Wave 3 breakout.
  • Risk model: pivot invalidation with 2R continuation target.

Good Conditions

  • The retracement respects the tested pivot window.
  • Balanced regime keeps the trade from fighting extreme macro pressure.
  • The breakout has room before the next resistance pocket.
  • The structure is visible before the trigger, not labeled afterward.

Avoid Conditions

  • The retracement undercuts the impulse base.
  • The wave labels are ambiguous or overlapping.
  • The breakout happens after the move is already extended.
  • News or opening volatility invalidates the balanced regime read.

Setup Anatomy

Wave sequence chart anatomy for Impulse Step 01
1 Impulse Mark the first confirmed upside impulse.
Retest and reclaim chart anatomy for Retrace Step 02
2 Retrace Wait for a controlled pullback.
Channel breakout chart anatomy for Break Step 03
3 Break Go long only when the Wave 3 break confirms.
Alert Readout

Tier 1: MES Elliott Wave Wave 3 Breakout Long 2R. A long continuation setup that uses a confirmed impulse, controlled retracement, and upside break to define a Wave 3 attempt. Filter: regime_label=balanced. Research sample: 50 trades, 56.0% win, 2.36 PF, +5.81 avg pts.