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Strategy Library / Trend Breakout Blueprint

MES Donchian 55 Breakout Long 3R

A public playbook for the MES Donchian 55 long breakout with profile-position confirmation.

31 trades / 51.6% win / 2.86 profit factor / +4.78 avg pts.

MES New York 1m Chart Long Setup regime_spy+profile_open_position=flat+inside_below_poc 31 Trades
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Trades 31 Saved Strategy Lab shortlist
Win Rate 51.6% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 2.86 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +148.14 MES points captured
Avg Trade +4.78 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MES / 1m Chart / New York
Annotated MES Donchian 55 Breakout Long 3R setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

A long-side channel expansion setup that waits for MES to break above a 55-bar high while the open is inside value but below POC.

Why It Fires

A market opening inside value and below POC can create a clean magnet if buyers reclaim control. The channel break confirms the move is expanding rather than fading.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Chart: MES 1-minute bars after the opening structure is built.
  • Build a 55-bar Donchian channel.
  • Require profile open position: inside value and below POC.
  • Go long only after a clean channel-high break.
  • Risk model: channel stop or tested structure stop, 3R target.

Good Conditions

  • POC is above entry and can act as a reasonable magnet.
  • The break happens after balanced structure, not into exhaustion.
  • SPY regime is flat enough that the trade is not fighting a broad risk-off tape.
  • Pullbacks hold above the broken channel high.

Avoid Conditions

  • Profile reference is unclear or stale.
  • Price breaks out directly into a heavy resistance shelf.
  • The channel high is only a one-bar news wick.
  • The market re-enters the old range immediately after the break.

Setup Anatomy

Value zone or order block chart anatomy for Profile Context Step 01
1 Profile Context Open is inside value and below the point of control.
Channel breakout chart anatomy for Channel Break Step 02
2 Channel Break Price pushes through the 55-bar high.
Continuation path chart anatomy for Expansion Step 03
3 Expansion The setup seeks follow-through toward the 3R continuation model.
Alert Readout

Tier 1: MES Donchian 55 Breakout Long 3R. A long-side channel expansion setup that waits for MES to break above a 55-bar high while the open is inside value but below POC. Filter: regime_spy+profile_open_position=flat+inside_below_poc. Research sample: 31 trades, 51.6% win, 2.86 PF, +4.78 avg pts.