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Strategy Library / ORB Blueprint

15m ORB Downside Break

A public playbook for the 15-minute opening range downside breakout research edge.

66 trades / 51.5% win / 1.68 profit factor / +38.69 avg pts.

MNQ / MES New York 15m Chart Short Setup Strategy Lab base edge 66 Trades
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Trades 66 Saved Strategy Lab research edge
Win Rate 51.5% Wins over resolved sample
Profit Factor 1.68 Gross win / gross loss
Total Points +2553.25 MNQ / MES points captured
Avg Trade +38.69 Average points per signal
Annotated Setup Chart MNQ / MES / 15m Chart / New York
Annotated 15m ORB Downside Break setup chart
Generated setup chart based on saved strategy anatomy and research stats, not a trade recommendation.
Research-backed Real stats Rule based Context filtered Live alert ready

What This Setup Is

A short setup that defines the first 15-minute range, waits for price to accept below the range low, and looks for continuation after the opening balance breaks.

Why It Fires

The opening range often becomes the first institutional reference. A clean downside break can force failed long inventory to unwind and pull momentum sellers into the move.

Exact Trigger Checklist

  • Build the opening range from the first 15 minutes of the New York session.
  • Mark the opening range high and low before entry.
  • Short only after price breaks and accepts below the range low.
  • Require enough room before the first obvious support or prior-session level.
  • Manage invalidation around the broken range or tested structure stop.

Good Conditions

  • The opening range is clean and not built entirely from one news spike.
  • The break holds below the range instead of instantly reclaiming.
  • VIX, dollar, or risk context does not fight the short.
  • Follow-through volume expands after the range breaks.

Avoid Conditions

  • Price breaks the low and snaps back into the range.
  • The range is too wide to support a reasonable stop.
  • A major macro release is seconds away.
  • The break fires directly into a prior low with no room.

Setup Anatomy

Bearish market context filter chart anatomy for Opening Range Step 01
1 Opening Range Define the first 15-minute high and low.
Bearish channel breakdown chart anatomy for Breakdown Step 02
2 Breakdown Price accepts below the opening range low.
Bearish continuation path chart anatomy for Continuation Step 03
3 Continuation The setup looks for downside expansion after acceptance.
Alert Readout

Alert Approved: 15m ORB Downside Break. A short setup that defines the first 15-minute range, waits for price to accept below the range low, and looks for continuation after the opening balance breaks. Filter: Strategy Lab base edge. Research sample: 66 trades, 51.5% win, 1.68 PF, +38.69 avg pts.